Under the influence of the epidemic, investors in the domestic oil market will have a hard time this Spring Festival, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain. In the middle of the month, horse palm MPOB report and meidou USAD report have been published, but the profit is limited, and the support stone for the international and domestic oil plate has entered the sea. With the more stringent traffic control, the resumption of some oil companies and the cautious purchase of terminal buyers, the domestic oil market is under constant pressure.
Take the spot soybean oil as an example, as shown in the figure below, as of the noon of February 14, the average spot price of the first-class soybean oil of the main domestic coastal manufacturers was about 6292 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of the first-class soybean oil in Dalian, Tianjin, Rizhao, Guangzhou and Beihai was about 6220 yuan / ton, 6150 yuan / ton, 6300 yuan / ton and 6280 yuan / ton respectively. The daily volume of bulk oil of oil factories in major regions of China has been less than 5000 tons, and some regions are resistant to decline. Most of the people in the upstream and downstream industries are willing to bear the storm. So what is the current situation at home and abroad? Xin Xianming, analyst of China Grain and oil information network, will make a brief analysis of this.
As Malaysian crude palm oil futures BMD has a great impact on domestic oil futures and spot plate, we pay more attention to horse palm market for palm oil producing countries.
Mumbai, February 14: India stops importing palm oil from Malaysia, disrupting the global trade flow of edible oil. Indonesia's palm oil is transferred to the Indian market, while Malaysia is eager to fill the market gap left by Indonesia. India has replaced palm oil with other edible oils.
India, the world's largest palm oil importer, issued a policy last month to restrict imports of refined palm oil. Sources said that India's move aimed to retaliate against Malaysian leaders for criticizing India's "invasion" of Kashmir and India's new citizenship law. Indian traders also suspended imports of crude palm oil from Malaysia.
Malaysia's latest palm oil export data also shows the impact of India's restrictions. Malaysia's palm oil exports to India in January were only 46876 tons, the lowest level since 2011, 85% lower than the same period last year.
Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1 to 15 fell 6.7% to 541444 tons from the same period last month, according to the data released by its on Saturday. From January 1 to 15, exports were 580421 tons. Exports fell 26.8% on the first 10 days of this month.
Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1 to 15 fell 10.1% to 511629 tons from 569260 tons in the same period last month, according to amspec agri, an independent inspection agency, on Saturday. On the first 10 days of this month, exports fell 20% month on month.
Over the past month, Malay market has been particularly worried about the future export of palm oil. From the existing news, the decline of Malay palm export data is bad for its price and our domestic oil plate. However, it should be noted that in the data of various institutions, the month on month decline of exports in the first 15 days of this month has improved compared with the month on month decline in the first 10 days. In addition, horse palm is about to launch more concentrated production reduction speculation. That is to say, we can not rule out the possibility of long short trend conversion in horse palm market, but at present, the market atmosphere of palm oil producing countries is short of oil, and it will take some time to digest.
American soybean guidelines unclear
At 1:00 a.m. on February 12, Beijing time, USDA monthly supply and demand report was released. The USDA report maintains the US new soybean production forecast unchanged, increases the export forecast to 1.825 billion cattles, and the final inventory forecast is 425 million cattles, which is lower than the previous market forecast. The data in the report is more neutral, but has limited effect on the oil sector, and increases the Brazilian soybean production forecast to 125 million tons.
As the harvesting of new beans in Brazil is gradually unfolding, all institutions are optimistic about the record production of new beans in Brazil. In addition to the USDA data report estimates, all institutions will also raise the record valuation higher and higher. Conab's front foot raised the record high to 123.25 million tons, agroconsult's back foot raised the forecast value of 126.3 million tons, and abiove also raised the record high to 123.7 million tons. Therefore, although China has adopted a series of policies to save the market, including raising taxes on some imported U.S. goods and reducing the price of U.S. beans, our consumption capacity has not been greatly improved before the end of the epidemic. The data of soybean in North America is biased while that of soybean in South America is empty. There is no clear trend guidance for soybean oil commodities in major international soybean producing countries US soybean oil and US soybean meal futures are also adjusted mainly by range shock in the near future.
At present, the epidemic situation has seriously affected the demand of domestic terminal catering industry. According to the China Cuisine Association, 78% of catering enterprises lost more than 100% of their operating income during the epidemic period, and soybean oil stocks returned to the level of more than 900000 tons. In addition, the market expects that the first stage trade agreement between China and the United States will take effect within 30 days after it is signed on January 15, so China may speed up the purchase of American agricultural products, Moreover, the short transportation time of American and Western soybeans to China, and the increased shipping volume and slow shipment of Brazilian soybeans have prompted China to increase its purchase of American and Western soybeans. All these factors put pressure on domestic soybean oil.
However, on the other hand, the phenomenon of city and road closures is common in various places. The logistics is not smooth, and other costs such as transportation and labor are rising. The selling of instant noodles also drives the palm oil market in disguise. The space at the bottom of the oil plate is still supported by the cost. Rise and fall is an eternal topic in the market economy. Rise is born in the fall, and when the bad news comes out, there will be benefits. The oil market is just a little difficult at the present stage. With the past of the epidemic, the consumer market will surely usher in a retaliatory rebound. In addition, with the continuous verification of horse palm production reduction, Indonesia's weather this year is not ideal. In the future, palm oil is expected to usher in a wave of production reduction speculation, which will benefit domestic oil. Therefore, the gap of soybean oil and palm oil in the later stage will also be compensated technically. Therefore, the market needs to maintain just in the off-season, survive the storm, only to see the rainbow.
