Cheng Guoqiang, a researcher at the development research center of the State Council, said that at present, the gap between domestic vegetable oil production and demand is 17 million tons, and the gap is expected to reach 27.3 million tons by 2020. The market demand is still growing rigidly, and there is no turning point at present. However, China's national food security strategy is to give priority to grain ration, and it is difficult to rely on its own cultivated land resources to make up for the huge gap of oil production and demand.
Cheng Guoqiang made the above statement at the "ninth international advanced seminar on oil and fat market" sponsored by the grain and oil business network yesterday. He said that in recent years, China's oilseed self-sufficiency rate has gradually decreased, and the current production and demand gap is 17 million tons. It is estimated that by 2020, the annual per capita consumption of vegetable oil in the mainland of China will be 25 kg, the total consumption of vegetable oil will reach 35.25 million tons, and the industrial consumption will maintain a consumption growth of 5%, reaching 2.65 million tons in 2020. Combined with the two, the total consumption of vegetable oil will be 37.9 million tons.
As grain priority is China's food security strategy, it is unrealistic for China to spend more land to grow oilseeds. It is estimated that the conversion of main domestic oilseeds into oil will remain at 10.6 million tons. By 2020, the gap of vegetable oil in China will reach 27.3 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate may drop to 28%, The consumption of palm oil will continue to grow at a high speed, and the consumption will exceed 10.5 million tons, gradually approaching that of soybean oil.
Cheng Guoqiang said that the biggest challenge for China's grain, oil and food supply is farmland constraints. In 2008, China's cultivated land has dropped to 182600 mu. With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the cultivated land will continue to decrease. In 2010, China imported 20.35 million tons of vegetable oil and oilseed oil. According to the current domestic production level of 236 Jin per mu of soybean, it is equivalent to using 960 million mu of planting area abroad, which is equivalent to the total planting area of rice and corn in China. If all of them are replaced by domestic production, it means reducing the total food production by 68%. Obviously, under the harsh conditions of agricultural resources, it is unrealistic for China to rely on its own cultivated land resources to solve the problem of vegetable oil supply gap.
It is precisely seeing the rapid growth of vegetable oil consumption in emerging countries such as China and India that the price of vegetable oil in the international market has risen for more than ten years in a row. For the future trend of global oil prices, participants were optimistic. Thomas milk, senior global oilseed analyst and editor in chief of oil world, said that soybean production in 2011 / 2012 will be greatly reduced. It is estimated that the loss of soybean production will be 7 million tons in the United States, 16 million tons in South America and more than 1 million tons in other countries. Affected by weather factors, the global loss of soybean production will reach 22 million tons to 23 million tons. Based on this, soybean production in the United States is expected to be 83.2 million tons, and that in South America is expected to be 118.4 million tons.
Milk believes CBOT soybean futures could soon exceed $14. From April to September 2012, the price of soybean oil will be stronger than that of soybean meal. From April to June, the price of oil and fat will rise sharply, among which soybean oil will become the leader, and the situation of strong oil and weak meal will appear. The price of soybean oil and palm oil will rise by US $70-100 in June, among which the trend of crude oil price will be the key factor. In 2012, the FOB price of 24 degree palm oil in Malaysia will rise to US $1180, the CIF price of crude palm oil in Rotterdam will reach US $1150, and the FOB price in Argentina will reach US $1250.
Milk said the world's demand for vegetable oil has become more dependent on palm oil, and the demand for palm oil will reach 78 million tons by 2020. When answering the representative's questions on the spot, milk said that Indonesia's palm oil production will continue to increase significantly in the future, with an annual increase of 2 million tons. By 2020, Indonesia's palm oil production will reach 41 million tons.
Lanri Abdallah, senior researcher of MPOB, said that Malaysia's palm oil has occupied an important position in the world's vegetable oil. Malaysia's palm oil production in 2011 was 18.91 million tons, and it is expected that the production in 2012 will reach 19.36 million tons. In 2012, the price of palm oil will continue to be strong, and the trading price range is expected to be between rm3100 / T and rm3600 / T.
Li Xiaoyue, director of Asia Department of forstone group of the United States, said that due to the reduction of soybean production in South America by about 12 million tons this year, which has a great impact on the market price, in order to meet the global balance of supply and demand, it is necessary to increase soybean production by more than 20 million tons in the next year.
